Personally I’d put more stock in certain passes than my aiming skill
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True. But take something like Game of Thrones: there is a pop bumper garden that returns the ball consistently. Usually. Once in a while it will kick out differently though. Not enough to lose your ball, but differently enough that your normal method won’t work. If you are relying on one of those moves, then you are relying on a consistent feed from a ball in space, which you really can’t count on and I’m guessing is outside the scope of the original post.
Maybe I’m adding something that isn’t there, but I’m wondering if the real question is: which games can you be 100% certain to achieve MB as long as you make your shots?
AC/DC I would argue does not qualify: you have to rely on the super skill shot eject to be consistent AND not hit the slings. There is a way you could fail through no fault of your own.
But with TOM, every feed to MB is infallible (unless you started the sequence with balls already locked).
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World Cup Soccer
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Pretty sure you can qualify and play MB in GB without ever validating the playfield.
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This exactly.
We’ve all played machines which are set differently, when your go to trap won’t work. E.g. The GoT I play on site the feed from the pop bumpers, or short plunge, catches either the top of the right slingshot or the slingshot itself triggers as the ball passes, meaning a trap from the plunge isn’t guaranteed. Likewise TZ. there are games where a trap from the slot machine from a hard plunge is guaranteed, others were there’s no chance.
I was looking more at games where, IF you make the shot, you’re guaranteed a consistent return to a flipper to make another shot.
IF you make all of the shots you get multiball.
PS my favourite so far has to be combo multiball in SM 
Demo Man works. It’s probably the one I have done most next to Scared Stiff and WH20
There are a few solid states that you can get MB on a plunge. Cactus Jack and Class of 1812 (sometimes)
RFM
Tron. Soft plunge to right flipper, left ramp, quorra, right ramp, right orbit, right ramp, scoop. Boom, light cycle multiball.
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Wow, nice.
Of course, getting it on the right flipper is no guarantee no matter what you do on the plunge.
Also, sometimes you can get credit for the right orbit if you hard plunge it off the up post (though he didn’t there). That would eliminate the need for the last two shots (right orbit, followed by right ramp).