I’ve never seen this happen in random pairings. Swiss style, yes.
Given:
Typical 4 strike format (not progressive) bottom 2 get one strike
28 players
4 player groupings
Player groupings set on random
Assume nobody out after 4 rounds, ie 28 players play in the first 5 rounds.
Find the probability of having one particular opponent in your group in rounds 1-5 inclusive
I’ll add the extra step of how you get 1 in 9, so that we can eliminate the ish. So you are matched against player B in all 5 rounds. There are “26 choose 2” (26!/(2!24!)) ways of choosing the remaining two opponents besides you and player B from the remaining 26 players, which is 325. This is out of the “27 choose 3” ways of choosing your other 3 opponents out of the remaining 27 opponents which is 2925. 325 over 2925 is 1/9. For a specific player, there is a (1/9)^5 chance you would encounter this player in all 5 rounds. The other solution of 27(1/9)^5 has already been given if the question is interpreted as the chance of this happening against any of your 27 opponents. I think both interpretations of the question have now been covered and thanks to bkerins for the heavy lifting.
It is “ish” for a few reasons. The 1/9^5 is correct for one opponent. But: If I’m not matched up with one opponent it makes being matched up with someone else slightly more likely. Also it is possible but very unlikely to have this happen with two different people in the same event. Multiplying 1/9^5 by 27 is not legal in this case in probability land, but the real answer is close enough for jazz.
Similar to a question - what are the odds I’ll flip a coin the same way 3 times in a row - the first flip only sets the mark - the next two must match it. But the first flip doesn’t ‘matter’ in the sense that it must be heads or tails, but it matters in that it sets the mark. So I was being quick with my answer - in that it doesn’t matter who is in the first group, other than that one of those 3 will join you 4 more times.
Now for a related question - what are the odds that in 4 strike tourney with 28 people nobody is eliminated after round 4?
The goal is to get into Round 4 where there you’ve minimized the number of people with three strikes, and I believe the key is to look at the matchups where there are different amounts of strikes and assume that those who have a greater amount of strikes win. I think the best you can get to is two players with 3 strikes if a few key matches in prior rounds go a specific way.
Round 1 - Everyone at 0
Round 2 - 14 at 0; 14 at 1
In Round 2, there’s one matchup where it’s 0011. If the two people with 1 Strike win, then the strikes are more spread out. I think it’s a 1/6 chance (4 of 24 permutations) where that scenario happens.
Round 3 (assuming Round 2 played out as above) - 6 at 0; 14 at 1; 6 at 2
In Round 3, there’s one matchup where it’s 1122. There’s also a 0011 matchup but it doesn’t matter as none of them could be eliminated in Round 4. If the two people with 2 Strikes win, then the strikes are more spread out. Assuming same (1/6) chance.
Round 4 (assuming Round 2 & 3 played out as above) - 26 at either 0/1/2; 2 at 3
In Round 4, there’s one matchup where it’s 2233. If the two people with 3 Strikes win, no one is eliminated. Assuming same (1/6) chance.
You need the same situation to play out over three specific games. Assuming random winners in each, I think it would be (1/6)^3.
In the original problem I took the liberty of stating nobody was eliminated in rounds 1-4 to keep the question easier.
In reality there had been 3 people eliminated after round 4. So there were groups of 3 and groups of 4 to consider which I felt would needlessly complicate the analysis.
I’d say this is worded the way you say, but could also mean what everyone else is saying, like he didn’t know the particular person until he looked at his group for the first 5 rounds, and said - that’s crazy - what are the odds?
I can see the potential for confusion. Certainly was not the intent.
In one interpretation, it can be considered as: what is the probability of players A and B being in the same 4 player group 5 times in a row where B is known ahead of time.
However I see how it could be interpreted that a group of 4 has been formed with A as one of the players and what is the probability of playing any of those remaining 3 players 4 more times in a row.
Either way, I feel it is still a pretty amazing occurrence