Is there a page somewhere that would show me the expected number of rounds for various strike formats? Or is there a way I can back that from the TGP guide?
In this case, I’m wondering about group knockout with progressive strikes (0/1/2/3). How many rounds would 7 strikes likely go? What if we go to 6 or 8?
Teach me to fish!
Thanks, but unless I’m missing something, that doesn’t answer my question. I’m hoping to find out how many rounds can be expected from various knockout formats. The guide only gives TGP.
For two player matches (0/1 strike), it makes sense to me that games towards TGP equals number of expected rounds. Is it as simple as cutting that number in half for four player games (to account for the 2x bonus on four player games)? Wasn’t sure if that was the case and if 0/1/2/3 strikes factors in as well, as compared to 0/1.
Search for “Progressive” on this page to get data from past tournaments on MP: https://matchplay.events/stats/knockout
Careful though – some charts are based on a very low number of tournaments (see the table below each chart for details on that front)
Sorry about that Ryan. I thought it was posted there.
Amazing…thank you!
I’m surprised that the player count doesn’t really seem to affect the number of rounds. I presume that doing the default pairings (people with the same number of strikes play each other) is key to that to ensure that pressure is being put on those with the fewest strikes?
(This leads to an interesting question…if the number of rounds is similar regardless of the number of players, then why does the TGP guide award more games as the player number increases?)
If I’m reading that right, 7 Strikes, Progressive Group Knockout is going to be around 8-9 rounds, regardless of how many players. (Hoping for 80ish, in this case).
Another awesome tool I’ve been using for “predicting” the number of rounds is @keefer’s FairStrikeSimV2.exe which is posted on this link:
The Google Drive link is on the above post. It’s a command-prompt based interface that you can put in the parameters and it’ll simulate rounds. It also allows you to change the strike configuration from Fair Strike (Default) to any strike configuration you want.
To run Progressive Strike, 7 Strike (I assumed 20 players) for 1000 simulations, it went like this:
cmd command:
FairStrikeSimV2.exe -s7 -p20 -r1000 -c 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 3
**** ROUNDS MATCH LASTED SUMMARY AFTER RUN 1000 ****
round 7: 103
round 8: 406
round 9: 306
round 10: 116
round 11: 50
round 12: 14
round 13: 5
**** AVERAGE ROUNDS LASTED, SUMMARY AFTER RUN 1000 ****
average match lasted 8.666000
I love the tool and I use it to try to ballpark how long a given format might last, especially in a configuration where we’re crunched for time and want to maximize TGPPerHour.
I haven’t looked, but that’s my assumption as well. Switching from swiss to balanced pairings would result in many more rounds being played
This tool is so awesome it became the method used when we updated the TGP Guide in 2019 
Realized I have a PC now (thanks streaming rig!) so I can run the simulator! (Which is super sweet)
TL;DR The TGP guide essentially tells you how many rounds you can expect. If it’s two player matches, then “games toward TGP” is the number of rounds. If it’s four player matches, then divide “games toward TGP” by 2 and you’ll get the expected number of rounds.
that’s my usual lazy way as well. look at the TGP guide and divie by 2 or 4 for head to head or group format 
I ran a 22 person progressive strike tournament recently and just made some test tournaments in matchplay to see how it might go. I ended up doing 13 strikes based on my trial tournaments, it ended up being 13 rounds IRL instead of the simulated 14. By round 9 the players dropped drastically. The first player went out in round 7, 4 more in round 8, 5 in round 9, 6 in round 10. At that point it was two 3 player groups and went pretty quick from there.
Just to not confuse anyone, if you’re converting from the “games played” number on the TGP Guide into rounds, it’s divide by 1 (ie: do nothing) for 2 player matches, or divide by 2 for 4 player matches.
If you’re going from games played on the TGP Guide to TGP %, it’s multiply by 4, regardless of group size.
Correct. And if you’re running 4-player groups (where possible), the dividing # TGP by 2 provides a reasonable estimate, even though you’re likely to have a couple rounds toward the end that might only be 3- and 2-player groups.
IIRC the sim spits out expected (well, average) players per round.
Sure, I was referring to this one that summarizes round activity for a specific configuration. Ran this for @Jahkub’s scenario which shows the dropoff he’s talking about. ( FairStrikeSim.exe -p22 -s13 -r10000 -c 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 2 3 )
I would have used your sim tool but had a heck of a time finding it. Now I know where to look. 
