Again, I get the argument, physical nature of pinball etc.
I find the rule subjective because assumed it ultimately relies on the lit state of the kickback where future response governs over known response.
In scenario 1 the kickback was lit and does NOT mean being saved.
In scenario 2 the kickback being lit DOES mean being saved.
Anyway I’ll have to think on it some more. I just don’t find the rule to be concrete.